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Dow 15,000? It’s Historically Likely, Expert Says


As one noted finance professor predicted the Dow was likely to hit 15,000 in the next two years — and called 17,000 a 50-50 proposition — “Fast Money” traders sounded less bullish.

“Many stock bulls are calling for a 10 percent to 15 percent gain this year. But I would not be surprised to see the market up 20 percent or more, even if earnings growth slows,” Jeremy Siegel, of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, said recently in a Barron’s article.

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Siegel looked at 141 years of stock market performance to make his forecasts and said that adjusted for inflation, the Dow at 15,000 would still be below its all-time high in 2007 dollars.

On Monday, trader Brian Kelly of Shelter Harbor Capital wasn’t buying it.

“I could get a big red nose and join the circus, too. It’s not going to happen,” he said. “Could the Dow hit 15,000? Of course it could if you print enough money.”


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Kelly pointed to a U.S. economy that wasn’t looking like a growth market and “massive, massive problems” in Europe.

Even though Greece passed austerity measures, it still faces more such measures.

“You’re talking about a 15-year recession,” he said. “I just don’t see that as a high-growth environment.”

Jon Najarian of OptionMonster.com said a Greek recession would be limited to banks’ exposure there.

Trader Stephen Weiss said he didn’t buy the super-bull theory either but offered a way to play the market in such a scenario.

“You want to buy the junk because the junk is what moves the most,” he said. “That’s what you want to buy. That means, also, a massive economic expansion, so buy the cyclicals as well.”

What do you think? We want to know!


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Trader disclosure: On Feb. 13, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Najarian is long AAPL; Najarian is long GS; Najarian is long GOOG; Najarian is long HD; Najarian is long TEX; Najarian is long CME; Grasso is long NUAN; Grasso is long S; Grasso is long XLU; Weiss is long HK; Weiss is long EUO; Weiss is long WLP; Weiss is long UGL; Weiss is long BKU; Weiss is short MT; Weiss is short BTU; Weiss is short AAPL puts; Weiss is short AMZN puts;

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