IFR-Preview-Major US economic data for Oct. 11

WHAT: Labor Department Import and Export Prices, September

WHEN: Thursday 0830 EDT (1230 GMT)

FORECASTS (pct) Reuters IFR PreviousImport Prices +0.7 +0.2 +0.7

IFR COMMENTARY: "Oil prices eked out a relatively small gain inSeptember after surging in August, and that should only beenough to send import prices (not seasonally adjusted) up 0.2%.Ex-petroleum prices, which have fallen for four consecutivemonths now, should be about flat after the dollar stoppedstrengthening earlier in the summer.

With Europe moving back into recession and trade havingretreated a bit, import prices should provide little inflationthreat. Oil is unlikely to make any significant breaks upwardwith headwinds to demand still fierce in the U.S. and Europe."-----------------

WHAT: Commerce Department International Trade Deficit, August

WHEN: Thursday 0830 EDT (1230 GMT)

FORECASTS (bln) Reuters IFR PreviousTrade deficit $44.0 $44.5 $42.0

IFR COMMENTARY: "We look for the trade deficit to have come backup from $42.0 bln to about $44.5 bln in August. While wider thanthe June and July deficits, it would remain noticeably below theQ2 average of $46.4 bln, implying that net exports will be apositive contributor to Q3 GDP.

Oil prices came back up in August, and should lift thepetroleum deficit back up after four consecutive declines.August's $20.9 bln deficit was the smallest since November 2010.The ex-petroleum deficit will likely be fairly stable, as thedollar has given back some of its gains and there have been nosignificant new hits to overall trade in real terms.

The real trade deficit we look to see little change at about$46.5 bln."


WHAT: Labor Department Initial Jobless Claims, weekly

WHEN: Thursday 0830 EDT (1230 GMT)

FORECASTS Reuters IFR PreviousInitial claims 370,000 365,000 367,000

Continued claims (mln) 3.275 3.280 3.281

IFR COMMENTARY: "Initial claims have worked out their post-LaborDay volatility, and should read 365k for the week ended October6, down just slightly from the prior week's 367k (which should,as usual, get revised up slightly). Claims have traveled in arelatively narrow range this year, but on the whole have beenabout flat, and we don't see that changing in the near term. Ifanything, layoffs may creep up as we approach the fiscal cliff.

Continuing claims for the week ended September 29 probablyremained around 3.280 mln. That would represent essentially nochange (barring revision) from the prior two weeks, and littlechange for the series since about mid-April. Layoffs haveremained relatively low, though uncertainty about the economicoutlook has kept hiring subdued as well."

-- by Theodore Littleton of IFR Markets, a unit of ThomsonReuters.

((--Reuters Economics and Markets desk, +1 212 646 6300))

((Washington newsroom, 202 898 8318))