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S&P Still on Track to Hit 1,575 Year-End: Dwyer


Although not perfect, stock market conditions continue to improve to push the S&P 500 toward 1,575 by year end, Canaccord Genuity’s Tony Dwyer said Wednesday on CNBC.

“We forget that the average up year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average is over 18 percent. The average up year for the S&P 500 is 16.8 percent, so it’s not that crazy. It’s just crazy relative to the way it feels, and fortunately feelings aren’t facts,” he said on “Fast Money.”

Dwyer, who is Canaccord’s chief equity strategist and senior managing director, acknowledged that a pull-back was likely but maintained his bullish year-end price target of 1,575 in the S&P 500.

S&P Could Still Hit 1,575 Year-End: Dwyer

“I think we’re in the fundamental sweet spot, and honestly, we’ve been calling for a little bit of a correction down to 1,400,” he said. “But at the end of the day, we’re in the economic sweet spot. Everybody keeps clamoring for this great economic data when we have great economic data. It comes with tightening monetary policy. It comes with tightening credit standards. It comes at the end of an economic cycle.

(Read More: Is the Stock Market Rally Over? Pros Are Split)

“We’re at the point where we’re still coming off this historic low and trending better, and I think that is very positive,” he said.

(Read More: Two Catalysts for Hitting S&P 1,500: Jim Paulsen)

What about the European crisis, a slowdown in China, the “fiscal cliff,” declining earnings and election uncertainty?

“I could make a hell of a negative case using those things. Here’s the problem: They were all absolutely true in second-quarter earnings, and yet here we are, at the peak we’re up 15 percent,” he said. “So, again, the market correlates to the direction of earnings. The direction of earnings is driven by economic activity. That’s driven by the availability of money. That’s driven by the availability of money. That’s driven by the Fed policy, and that’s driven by core inflation.

(Read More: Marc Faber: Market Setting Up for ‘Serious Setback’)

“And all of those are historically in favor of equities, so when we get these pull-backs until you have money availability begin to shrink, or even begin to tighten, it’s still getting better. You want to be buying those kinds of weak periods.”

Dwyer’s target for year-end 2013 was S&P 1,650.

Trader disclosure: On Oct. 10, 2012, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s “Fast Money” were owned by the “Fast Money” traders: Enis Taner is long GS; Enis Taner is long AMZN PUTS; Enis Taner is long FDX PUTS; Joe Terranova is long NXPI; Joe Terranova is long VRTS; Joe Terranova is long WFM; Joe Terranova is long SBUX; Joe Terranova is long NFLX; Joe Terranova is long SWN; Joe Terranova is long TRV; Joe Terranova is long VZ; Joe Terranova is long XOM; Joe Terranova is long CSTR; Joe Terranova is long CHKP; Joe Terranova is long GLW; Joe Terranova is long EMC; Joe Terranova is short Dec. Mini S&P futures; Pete Najarian is long AAPL; Pete Najarian is long C; Pete Najarian is long JPM CALLS; Pete Najarian is long INTC CALLS; Pete Najarian is long SBUX; Pete Najarian is long FB; Pete Najarian is long MSFT; Stephanie Link is long AAPL; Stephanie Link is long JPM; Stephanie Link is long SBUX; Stephanie Link is long CVX; Stephanie Link is long DG; Stephanie Link is long FDX.

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