North Sea Crude-BP buys 4th Forties this week


* Forties steady at dated Brent plus 70 cents

* North Sea output to fall by 1 percent in November

* Swaps in backwardation

LONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - North Sea Forties crudedifferentials remained at a strong premium to dated Brent onThursday, supported by demand from BP, signs of tight supply inNovember and expectations of stronger refinery demand.

BP purchased its fourth cargo this week on Thursday andrival traders expect the oil to be loaded onto a Very LargeCrude Carrier bound for South Korea, removing a chunk of supplyfrom northwest Europe.

Shipments of Forties to South Korea, encouraged by a freetrade agreement during 2012, tend to support prices in the NorthSea market, as well as Brent swaps and timespreads.

"Forties arbitrage to Asia together with a downtick inoffline NWE refining capacity in November and a still relativelytight loading programme does paint a bullish picture," saidEugene Lindell, analyst at JBC Energy in Vienna.

He added, though, that actual November loadings of Fortiesmay be higher if delayed cargoes from October are brought intothe first 10 days of November.


* BP bought from a Forties loading Oct. 26-31 at dated plus70 cents, the same as a trade on Wednesday, and the fourth cargoit has bought in the Platts window this week.

* Also in the window, BP bid for an Oct. 31-Nov. 7 Fortiesat dated plus 45 cents.


* Supply of the 12 North Sea crudes tracked by Reuters willaverage 1.95 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, downfrom 1.97 million bpd in October, according to Reuterscalculations on Thursday based on loading programmes.

* Almost the entire Forties programme for October has beendeferred due to a slower-than-expected return to production ofthe Buzzard offshore oilfield, Britain's biggest, after amaintenance shutdown.


* The swaps curve remained in a backwardation, although notso steep at the front end as on Wednesday:

15-19/10 Dec +10022-26/10 Dec +9029-02/11 Dec +635-9/11 Dec +4012-16/11 Dec +1519-23/11 Dec -6DATABASE

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(Reporting by Alex Lawler; editing by Keiron Henderson)

((alex.lawler@thomsonreuters.com)(+44 207 542 4087)(ReutersMessaging: alex.lawler.reuters.com@reuters.net))

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