Predictions 2013

Carney's Scorecard: 2012


Retirement Predictions: F

As I mentioned, I did a pretty well last year. My three big misses were my predictions that Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfein would retire and that China would experience a political crisis. Dimon and Blankfein are still there—and China navigated a leadership change without crisis. I award myself an F on each of these.

Arab Spring: A

Let's move on to my better subjects. I predicted that the Arab Spring of 2011 would give way to violence in 2012. Recent events in Egypt, Syria, and Israel bear that out.

European Central Bank: A

My prediction about Europe was a home run. "Eventually, perhaps next year, the European Central Bank will become much more active in preventing the bond market from breaking the unified currency," I wrote. That's exactly what happened.

Stock Market: A

My prediction for the stock market was also a homer. "Sometime next year, the stock market will experience a huge rally that will make suckers of all the pessimists like me. Shorts will get clobbered; those sitting on the sidelines will look foolish," I wrote.