Predictions 2013

Where Are the Global Hot Spots in 2013?

Ahmad Gharabli | AFP | Getty Images

Greece will stay in the Euro.

That's what German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants, and that's what she'll get, because she's the one holding the purse strings. Merkel wants to be re-elected in 2013, and she doesn't want any risk of contagion happening before then. The cost of keeping Greece in, on a relative basis, is cheap.

Mexico will become the next hot market

Almost unnoticed, our southern neighbor is becoming an economic stronghold on its own. Legal and financial reforms have led to the increasing democratization of credit. That's lead to a growing middle class. As China gets more expensive, Mexico becomes increasingly more competitive in manufacturing. Next—two potential transformations will happen in their energy sector and in their labor markets.

Africa disappoints.

As classic emerging markets (Brazil, Russia, India, China) slowdown from their heyday, hundreds of frontier funds have been started, in search of the next hot growth area -- many with a focus on Africa. Chinese investment in Africa in particular lead many to believe now is the time. But -- and yes this is an over-generalization -- the rule of law is not widespread enough in the continent. There is a glimmer of hope for Tunisia. Egypt is still questionable.