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S&P Pulls Back at This Level: Trader

Expect S&P 500 Pullback Here: Brian Kelly

Chart analysis of the S&P 500 suggests what the end of this stock rally will look like, Brian Kelly of Shelter Harbor Capital said Thursday.

"The bear suit is at the cleaners," he said. "I'm not quite ready to be short this market, but here's what happens."

On CNBC's "Fast Money," Kelley noted that PMI tends to peak before the S&P does.

PMI, he added, "peaked months and months ago."

Kelly noted that if stocks gained another 100 points, that would take the S&P to around 1,585.

"We go 130 points, you get to 1,600," he said. "So that's where the target comes in."

Kelly said that the final phase would probably be a parabolic move higher, but it's not likely to happen in the immediate future.

"That's why I'm not willing to be short yet because I wouldn't want to get my face ripped off," he said.

StockMonster's Guy Adami agreed with the bearish flavor.

"I think the market wants to continue to go higher. It shows no reason to celebrate now. I think the reason will be evident when you have that day," he said. "We haven't had that day yet. I believe it's coming. We haven't seen it."

Stuart Frankel's Steve Grasso said that he liked Kelly's thesis.

"Everyone's been anticipating this pullback, but I think you're going to see that pullback at around 16, 16, where everyone's focused on 1,576," he said. "We'll probably just blow that right through, and that'll confuse everybody further."

Trader disclosure: On March 14, 2013, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC's "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders: Guy Adami is long C; Guy Adami is long GS; Guy Adami is long INTC; Guy Adami is long MSFT; Guy Adami is long NUE; Guy Adami is long BTU; Guy Adami is long AGU; Brian Kelly is long TREASURY NOTES; Brian Kelly is long GOLD; Brian Kelly is long S&P; Brian Kelly is short Oil; Brian Kelly is short Gasoline; Brian Kelly is short Copper ; ; Karen Finerman is long AAPL; Karen Finerman is long BAC; Karen Finerman is long C; Karen Finerman is long JPM; Karen Finerman is long WMT; Karen Finerman is long TGT; Karen Finerman is long MSFT; Karen Finerman is long GOOG; Karen Finerman is long DIS; Karen Finerman is short JCP; Karen Finerman is long M; Karen Finerman is long FINL; Karen Finerman is long CFX; Karen Finerman is long FL; Karen Finerman is short SPY; Karen Finerman is short MDY, long puts; Steve Grasso is long AAPL; Steve Grasso is long ASTM; Steve Grasso is long BA; Steve Grasso is long GOOG; Steve Grasso is long GDX; Steve Grasso is long LF; Steve Grasso is long LNG; Steve Grasso is long MHY; Steve Grasso is long MU; Steve Grasso is long PXD; Steve Grasso is long NVIV; Steve Grasso is long PFE; Steve Grasso is long S; Steve Grasso is long VLO; Steve Grasso is funds long FB; Steve Grasso is funds long MSFT; Steve Grasso is funds long HPQ; Steve Grasso is funds long ZNGA; Steve Grasso is funds long GM; Steve Grasso is funds long USG.