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Cramer: Is market riskier than it appears?

Is the market wrong?

(Click for video linked to a searchable transcript of this Mad Money segment)

Although stocks closed lower on Monday, considering the acrimony in Washington Cramer wonders why the decline wasn't worse.

"Why weren't we down more than we were? That's the question I'm asking myself," Cramer said.

Although the Mad Money host concedes there are some reasons to buy, he suspects they will be short lived.

That is, Monday was end of month and it's possible some money manager were window dressing or buying winners ahead of quarter's end to make their holdings look more appealing to investors.

And Cramer added that some of the buying may have been mechanical, that is, there were technical indicators that suggested stocks were oversold.

However, broadly, Cramer doesn't feel good about the market. He thinks the 128 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday and the 10 point drop in the S&P 500 smacks of optimism.

And he doesn't see reasons to feel terribly optimistic.

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

Of course Cramer realizes there's potential for an 11th hour deal, but he doesn't think that's a reason to buy. "I'm not all that worried about missing out on a secret deal," he said.

Instead Cramer believes the acrimony created by the current budget imbroglio is likely to become amplified in the weeks ahead as Congress grapples with raising the debt ceiling.

"There's a second punch coming," Cramer said. "And there's no way that I think such as fractious body as the House of Representatives will come to agreement on both the budget and the debt ceiling in one fell swoop."

Instead Cramer expects posturing. "I expect more brinksmanship and more rancor that what we've had so far," Cramer said.

In turn, that will introduce great uncertainty into the market.

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And with the S&P 500 still within a stone's throw of it's all time-high, Cramer does not believe the forthcoming second punch is properly factored into stocks.

"I'm making a judgment," Cramer conceded, "but I have to make it. I believe that the market could be wrong here."

Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC

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