Top Stories
Top Stories
World Economy

Why the taper may not happen until 2015

Leslie Shaffer | Writer for
Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve
Getty Images

While the spotlight may have shifted from when the Federal Reserve will taper its asset purchases to the U.S. government shutdown, some analysts are quietly pushing back their taper forecasts, with one arguing it may not come until 2015.

"Tapering is a long way off," said James Gruber, founder of investment newsletter Asia Confidential. He doesn't expect tapering to occur until 2015 at the earliest, noting any moves by the Fed to wind down its $85 billion a month of asset purchases are expected to cause Treasury yields to rise.

"The U.S. can't afford higher interest rates," as higher interest expenses would start to crowd out other government spending, likely requiring harsh spending cuts, he told CNBC. "No countries will opt to do that."

(Read more: Why the Fed backed away from tapering: Jon Hilsenrath)

Gruber believes the likely appointment of Janet Yellen as the successor to Ben Bernanke at the helm of the Fed also signals tapering isn't on the cards.

"She's pretty well on record as suggesting that she'd continue Ben Bernanke's policies and I don't believe cutting quantitative easing will be on the agenda if she gets into power," he said.

Taper may not happen until 2015: Pro

Once the debt ceiling issue has been resolved, Gruber expects funds which flowed out of Asian markets on concerns over tapering to return. He expects India and Thailand to see some of that flow, but remains cautious on hard-hit Indonesia, as its large commodity exposure is a concern.

"It's pretty positive from an Asian front" for about six to 12 months, he said, but added, "longer term, I'm pretty bearish on the scenarios with regard to those policies," as he expects asset bubbles to form.

(Read more: Bill Gross: Fed will have to taper at some point )

While Gruber's view on taper timing may be more extended than the mainstream, others are also pushing their expectations back.

"Given what's happening in the U.S. Congress right now, I don't see the Fed tapering on October 29th and 30th," said Vasu Menon, vice president for wealth management at OCBC. "Tapering could take place in December. But if this impasse drags out longer, it's going to hurt the U.S. economy," he said.

(Read more: Why the shutdown could mean no tapering this year)

"The longer it drags out, the bigger the impact on the economy. And that gives less room for the Fed to taper," he added. "The can has been kicked down the road."

Even without the shutdown, with economies only recovering gradually, central banks globally don't have room to tighten aggressively, he noted.

—By CNBC.Com's Leslie Shaffer; Follow her on Twitter