Editor's note: Combining his passions for the markets, humor and food, "What's cookin' with Kenny Polcari" is a blog published twice weekly on CNBC.com. With more than 30 years of experience on Wall Street, Polcari provides insight and analysis on the markets, as well as a recipe du jour. Buon appetito!
The markets celebrate in the aftermath of the "deal: legislators struck in the wee, wee hours of Thursday morning. A quick look reveals that although they did make a deal, the compromise reminds me of a great dish, stuffed pork rolls. But that's another story.
Looking ahead, it seems lawmakers will try to reconcile the differences in tax and spending goals as they try to move past the recent acrimony of the government shutdown to find areas of agreement. But both Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.) and Rep. Patty Murray, (D-Wash.) made no assurances of success and avoided setting any goals. They have until mid-December to come up with a plan. That is only 40 working days from now. Good luck!
Ryan sums it up, "We are going to try and figure out if we can even get an agreement."
Is it me? Have I missed something here?
Yet the market continues to celebrate.
(Read more: Did Wall Street make the next budget crisis worse?)
The analysts and strategists will tell you that the S&P closed at an all-time high Thursday as investor confidence grew after the last-minute congressional deal to avoid a U.S. default. Hmmmm. Not so sure. Relief? Yes. But confidence?
How about that the chatter is now all about the continuing presence of the Fed. It is NOT going anywhere. How can it? It's data dependent, and we can disregard any of the coming macro data attractions because the federal agencies that collect and report this data were all closed in the shutdown.
And third-quarter earnings continue to disappoint. At some point, investors will HAVE to focus on the fundamentals and the impact it will have on valuations.
Mark Travis of Intrepid Capital makes the point. The markets will cheer a Yellen Fed as long as inflation remains low and unemployment remains high, but he is concerned that as investors bring more cash to the table it is becoming more difficult to invest it "prudently."
"By and large, we are sitting on our hands a lot," Travis said.
His caution should be applauded, as he is charged with the responsibility of managing those assets, and in this environment he and many others are frustrated by the disconnect between equity prices and fundamentals.
The reality that continued Fed stimulus is ahead hit the dollar hard. Gold spiked $40 an ounce, to $1,322, confirming that the gold market expects the dollar to weaken further in the months ahead. It now looks like the metal is ready to challenge its 50-day moving average at $1,341.
This is a key resistance level, and although the pattern is still lower lows and lower highs, if the dollar keeps falling we may see a reversal in gold. A breach of $1,341 could create a swift move to $1,400 an ounce.
(Read more: The odd reason why gold rose on the Senate deal)
With the debt deal only hours old, the market has hit resistance. A trend line drawn on the SPX from the May highs to Thursday reveals that traders pushed the broader market to what should be resistance at 1,740. Will we test Friday?