Gas futures are trading around a 52-week low, which is not too unexpected—gasoline demand is always weakest in the fourth quarter. But with the recent selloff in crude, and more downside predicted, gas will trade even lower.
If you look at the charts going back 10 years, you will see that in just about every one of them, gas sells off around this time of year. That's because of the declining seasonal demand for gasoline. After all, the market focuses on fundamentals, and the fundamental story right now is that there is plenty of supply, and demand has not gotten over 9 million barrels per day, the usual pivot point for prices.
Two other factors will likely push prices lower than in previous years. First, the Middle East is very quiet on the geopolitical front right now, so there shouldn't be much of a "risk premium" in this market. Second, let's not forget that Superstorm Sandy happened around this time last year, and the resulting outages pushed prices higher. Obviously, we do not have that issue this year.
So where do I see gasoline going now?
There is no reason why we can't see gas futures trade at least 10 to 15 cents lower from these levels. But $2.40 a gallon should be a good base of support.