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The one thing that will matter for gold this week

PROSPECTING GOLD
AP

Gold has held against the major $1,352 level in early Monday trading and has been unable to surpass Friday's high of $1,356.40. This makes sense, as traders can expect gold to stay in a range ahead of Monday's November options expiration.

Another reason gold is likely to remain range-bound as we head into this week: All eyes are on the two-day Fed Open Market Committee meeting, which begins Tuesday. It's unlikely that the Fed will announce a taper of bond purchases, but investors will still be scrutinizing the Fed statement that will be released on Wednesday. They're looking for clues to when tapering may begin.

(Read more: Hilsenrath to Wall Street: You don't know Fed)

Gold was last at this level following the FOMC meeting in September, when it got a boost after many were surprised by the committee's decision to hold back on tapering. Gold has rallied more than $100 in the last two weeks, and it would not surprise traders to see some sort of profit-taking through Tuesday's session.

(Read more: Fund manager: If you believe in math, buy gold!)

On the other hand, the 100-day moving average sits at $1,342.20, which still aligns with a major retracement level at $1,342.50. Support, then, will be found at $1,342. So only a close below here will encourage profit-taking ahead of the Fed statement on Wednesday afternoon.

Rich Ilczyszyn is founder and CEO of iiTrader. Follow him on Twitter @iiTrader.

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