Respondents see the economy posting just 1.9 percent growth this year, down from an optimistic 2.7 percent at the beginning of 2013. They continue to hold out hope of a rebound next year, forecasting 2.5 percent growth year-over-year.
Wall Street forecasts an 18.4 percent chance of a recession in the next year. That's the third consecutive rise for the survey, up from the June low of 15.2 percent but below the long-run average of 22 percent.
Meanwhile, the financial industry is divided over the holiday shopping season: About a third say it will be worse than last year, while a third say it will be better and a third say it will be the same.
"The shorter holiday shopping season will not prevent a rise in holiday sales of 3 to 3.5 percent from last year,'' said Stuart Hoffman of PNC. "Two million more employed, high house and stock prices, and lower gasoline prices drive holiday sales higher."
—By CNBC's Steve Liesman. Follow him on Twitter: @steveliesman