The current rally, which has sent the S&P 500 up nearly 24 percent this year, is on track to be the best in a decade. And based on historical statistics, odds are in favor of a higher year-end.
Since 1950, the market has risen more than 20 percent in the first 10 months of the year only four other times. In each instance, the S&P closed the year with a gain of at least 1.29 percent in the last two months.
Going back to 1929, the number of occurrences increases to 12 (10 of them before 1990), and the S&P finished the year with additional gains 83 percent of the time. (It was flat once, in 1938, and negative in 1943.) The average gain in November and December combined stands at 4.79 percent.
While past history does not guarantee future performance, the pattern suggests that the rally may not be over.
| S&P 500 | % Change | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First 10-Mos | Nov. | Dec. | Nov. & Dec. |
| 1935 | 31.57 | 3.85 | 3.79 | 7.78 |
| 1975 | 29.87 | 2.47 | -1.15 | 1.29 |
| 1933 | 29.94 | 10.27 | 0.91 | 11.27 |
| 1958 | 28.36 | 2.24 | 5.20 | 7.56 |
| 1936 | 28.29 | 0.64 | -0.40 | 0.23 |
| 1954 | 27.69 | 8.08 | 4.38 | 12.82 |
| 1995 | 26.61 | 4.10 | 1.74 | 5.92 |
| 1945 | 25.38 | 3.24 | 0.99 | 4.26 |
| 1938 | 24.55 | -3.12 | 3.22 | Unch. |
| 1997 | 23.47 | 4.46 | 1.57 | 6.10 |
| 1989 | 22.56 | 1.65 | 2.14 | 3.83 |
| 1943 | 21.9 | -7.47 | 4.17 | -3.61 |
| Average: | 2.53 | 2.21 | 4.79 | |
—BY CNBC's Giovanny Moreano. Follow him on Twitter: @giovannymoreano