What can we expect from the retail space? Dana Telsey, CEO of Telsey Advisory Group, is one of the most respected retail analyst, gives insight to Talking Numbers on what to expect this week from two names, Macy's and the world's largest store chain, Wal-Mart.
"Macy's and Wal-Mart are different companies but in terms of what we're looking for, I think everyone's going to want to know about sales trends," says Telsey.
Telsey says the third quarter was volatile in part because of the government shutdown in early October. As well, comparisons with last year's third-quarter figures will likely be skewed because of Hurricane Sandy's affect in 2012
The two stores will have different results, says Telsey. She sees the second half of 2013 being more favorable to Macy's than to Wal-Mart. Macy's target for same-store sales in a range of 2.5% to 4%. She believes it will be slightly less than 3%, thanks to sales promotions.
Meanwhile, Wal-Mart same-store sales won't grow, Telsey believes. "When you think about Wal-Mart, they're guiding to a US comp of flat versus a 1.5% last year," says Telsey. "The lower income consumer has certainly more cautious than what we're seeing from the moderate consumer."
As for recent announcement by stores that they will be opening on Thanksgiving Day, Telsey thinks they may have a reason to do so.
"I think it does give a little bit of a boost," says Telsey. "One of the issues this year is there's six fewer days between Black Friday and December 25th. So, the big days have to become bigger and they're all looking to create a sense of urgency."
"It is amazing. I never would have thought we would have stores opening on Thanksgiving Day."
Even though Telsey sees Wal-Mart's same-store sales as coming flat, would it make for a good trade? Looking at the technicals on Wal-Mart is Talking Numbers contributor Richard Ross, Global Technical Strategist at Auerbach Grayson.
To see Ross' charts on Wal-Mart and what he thinks is next in the stock, watch the video above.
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