Don't panic till the last of the bears throws in the towel

Not seeing a bubble: Jeff Cox

The other day I was having lunch with a friend from college who made a lot of money during the financial crisis by shorting stocks.

Not John Paulson money, of course. He was focused on equities, when the real money was in fancier derivatives. But enough that someone prone to occasionally confuse success in financial markets with wisdom would consider him a very wise man.

He ordered a burger with Swiss cheese and drank tap water. I had the tuna sandwich and something stronger than tap water.

"I hope you didn't listen to me the last time we met," he said. "I wish I hadn't listened to me."

The last time we had seen each other was back in late April or early May—I forget exactly. He was absolutely terrified by the performance of the equities markets.