CNBC contributor Andrew Busch, editor and publisher of The Busch Update, says the real story is more about demand than supply.
"Global demand is going up because the global economy is doing better," says Busch. "When you have an event such as Iran saying it will pump as much as possible and they don't really care what OPEC says about it, and you watch the price of oil go up, you know something else is at play."
And, Iran may not be able to increase its share of OPEC's total output, currently at 30 million barrels per day.
"Iran pumps about 2.7 million barrels a day," notes Busch. "They say they want to get up to 4 million but they've got to get help. They've got to get other oil companies – foreign oil companies – to come in and help them rebuild their industry. This is a country that can't even produce distillates and has to import things like kerosene."
Jeff Tomauslo, managing partner of Belpointe Alternative Investments, says the charts confirm bullishness for oil despite recent sell-offs.
"We're putting in lower highs and that's really key," says Tomasulo. "If it holds that [upward-sloping] trend line, I think right now is a perfect time to be buying oil."
To see the rest of Busch's fundamental take and for the two key levels in crude oil – including the one level where Tomasulo says the market tends to sell – watch the video above.
More from Talking Numbers: