Besides the Fed, there are three Treasury auctions for $96 billion in 2-, 5- and 7-year notes Tuesday to Thursday. There is also an active economic calendar, including existing home sales and leading indicators. Earnings are expected from FedEx and Oracle on Wednesday, and Nike on Thursday.
In the past week, stocks sold off with the S&P 500 off 1.7 percent for the week, to 1,775, its worst week since Aug. 30. The Dow was slightly positive Friday but down for the week, losing 1.7 percent to 15,755. The Nasdaq was off 1.5 percent at 4,000, and the Russell 2000 was off more than 2 percent at 1,107.
While some strategists expect the beginning of Fed tapering to jolt stocks, Jeff Mortimer of BNY Mellon Wealth Management sees it playing out more positively. Mortimer, director of investment strategy, expects the Fed to start tapering at its March meeting.
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"We've certainly had a pullback in the last few days as the mentions ... and possibility of tapering increased," he said. "This does not scare us away. Tapering could be a good thing if it's backed by good economic data, and if the Fed does ratchet down QE3 … if the economy gives them cover to do so, that's the best outcome."
Mortimer said he is positive on the market for next year, too, and sees the S&P 500 reaching 1,900 to 1,950, and the 10-year Treasury yield possibly touching 3.5 percent.
"The one thing that has our attention here is that there might be a little too much complacency in here," he said. "You have bull-to-bear ratios that are a little stretched and have previously been precursors to pullbacks. I'm not good at saying what was going to happen for the next 17 days. I think we chop a little but stay near these levels."
Mortimer added there could be some selling in January as investors who delayed selling for tax purposes take gains.
Mortimer said the wild card for 2014 is inflation, which has all but disappeared and is also clearly a concern to the Fed. "That is the most important variable. It influences all asset class returns," he said. "It's a lynch pin...We've had disinflation."
Energy is one area that he thinks could be a "white swan," though the economic benefits from increased U.S. drilling of oil and gas is not easily measured. "It's a good thing to have happening in the background," he said.
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Mortimer still sees value in the stock market at these levels, despite the strong gains this year.
"Markets are behaving like they've always behaved, so I'm not surprised that I think next year is another very good year. The only thing that does bother me a bit is that I wish people were celebrating more. We've had an up 25 percent year, and nobody cares," he said.
Federal Reserve celebrates 100th anniversary
8:30 a.m. Empire State survey
8:58 a.m. Manufacturing PMI
9:00 a.m. Treasury international capital data
9:15 a.m. Industrial production
2:00 a.m. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke comments at Fed Centennial commemoration
2-day FOMC meeting begins
Earnings: Jabil Circuit, FactSet, Sanderson Farms, Verifone
8:30 a.m. CPI
8:30 a.m. Current account
10:00 a.m. NAHB survey
1:00 p.m. $32 billion 2-year note auction
Earnings: FedEx, General Mills, Lennar, Oracle, Jabil Circuit, Paychex, Herman Miller, Steelcase
7:00 a.m. Mortgage applications
8:30 a.m. Housing starts
10:30 a.m. EIA oil/gas inventory data
11:30 a.m. $35 billion 5-year note auction
2:00 p.m. FOMC statement
2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke press briefing
Earnings: Nike, Red Hat, Darden, Accenture, Rite-Aid, Worthington Industries, Tibco Software
8:30 a.m. Initial claims
10:00 a.m. Existing homes
10:00 a.m. Philadelphia Fed survey
10:00 a.m. Leading indicators
10:30 a.m. Natural gas inventories
1:00 p.m. $29 billion 7-year note auction
Earnings: BlackBerry, Carmax, Walgreen
8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q3 final
—By CNBC's Patti Domm. Follow here on Twitter @pattidomm.