Long-term Investing

Equities will be 'last man standing': Nomura's Janjuah

Stocks from developed nations will be the "last man standing" in a bear market that's due to arrive by the end of the year, warns Bob Janjuah, Nomura's uber-bearish strategist.

The extra liquidity flooding the world's financial markets from the quantitative easing (QE) programs from central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve have caused a domino effect of falling asset prices, Janjuah said.

The first asset class to fall, he said, was commodities in 2011. Next was emerging markets. Coming up, Janjuah predicts, will be housing and then stocks in 2014/2015.

(Read More: Stand by…a hefty drop's on the way: Nomura's Janjuah)

"As 2014 unwinds, the data will I think expose policymakers as falling far behind the curve, persisting with a policy tool, whose 'success' is increasingly narrowly based and which is failing to deliver broad-based inflation, growth or any other meaningful positives to the real economy," Janjuah said in his latest client note on Monday.

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"I think later in 2014 the themes of deflation and recession will dominate, and in the middle of this it will I think be painful to watch Ms Janet Yellen and other policymakers flip flop and attempt to extract themselves from their policy errors."

(Read More: S&P 500 to Dip 5-10%, Then Soar: Nomura's Janjuah)

For the , which stood at 1,781 points before the open on Monday, Janjuah sees two potential scenarios playing out in the next few weeks.

If the index closes above 1,800 this week or next, then he sees it approaching 1,950 level by April. However, following last week's emerging market sell-off, Janjuah's most likely scenario is for the S&P 500 to fall below 1,770 in the next two weeks. If this happens, he said, then the risk/rewards favor a meaningful risk-off move to the low-1,700s during February, with even 1,650 and 1,600 possible.

"In this more bearish short-term scenario, I'd expect Ms Yellen and her late February testimony on the Hill to be a catalyst for a bullish turnaround – if the S&P drops 100/150 points in the next two-three weeks, I suspect that she will then send out extremely dovish signals, which the market will not be able to resist responding to!," he said.

'Encouraging signs' from US market: Pro

(Read More: 'Loose Cannon' Yellen as Fed Chief Scares Market: Janjuah)

"Either way 2014 is already proving to be more challenging...overall I think the end of the post-2009 QE-driven bull is at hand (or very soon to be at hand) and the onset of the next significant (post-QE) deflationary bear market, which I think will run deep into 2015, should now begin to guide all investment decisions."

Janjuah, no stranger to gloomy predictions, has made several large calls in recent years. In November, he said that the end of 2013 till the end of the first quarter of 2014 would be a buying window followed by a 25 percent to 50 percent sell-off over the last three quarters of 2014. He also predicted an interim sell-off in November which never materialized.

In a research note published in late March, the long-term bear expected a large dip for the S&P 500 which also never fully played out. However, the strategist predicted that the market would then soar higher during the rest of the year.

In August 2012, he said that the S&P 500 would likely to fall by 20-25 percent over the following three months ahead of the U.S. elections – again that failed to prove accurate.

By CNBC.com's Matt Clinch. Follow him on Twitter

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