Emerging Markets

Rout overdone, emerging markets to 'turn' this year

Why the rout in emerging markets is overdone

The recent phase of the emerging market rout is overdone, analysts told CNBC on Tuesday, arguing that it's only a matter of time before investors wake up to the opportunities there.

Dramatic falls in the currencies of countries like Argentina and Turkey triggered widespread selling across the asset class earlier this year. The MSCI Emerging Market Index plunged nearly 9 percent from the start of the year to a hit a low of 913.65 on February 4, but has recovered 2.3 percent since.

(Read More: Will emerging markets become a euro zone-style risk?)

Dave Zier, chief executive officer at Convergent Wealth Advisors, told CNBC this year would be the year emerging markets' fortunes would turn.

"Emerging markets are suffering from people's view of a lack growth from a global standpoint and I think that will change fairly soon... I think this is the year emerging markets are going to turn," Zier told CNBC Asia Squawk Box on Tuesday.

Istanbul Stock Exchange
Ulrich Baumgarten | Getty Images

This year's rout has been reminiscent of the brutal sell-off seen last year from mid-May to late June when U.S. central bankers' first mention of tapering prompted widespread panic selling across risk assets, as investors panicked over how countries with larger current account deficits would cope. The MSCI Emerging market index lost 17.5 percent over that period.

However, many analysts have pointed out that the drivers of this year's rout have been markedly different this time.

(Read More: Fed volatility is emerging markets' 'poison': Analyst)

Nicholas Spiro, managing director of London-based consultancy Spiro Sovereign Strategy, pointed out that the more recent sell-off has occurred at a time when long-term U.S. Treasury yields have been falling, rather than rising, showing that a fear of a rise in U.S. interest rates was not the trigger for this phase of the sell-off.

Last year, yields on the 10-year Treasury note spiked nearly 140 basis points from May to late December to over 3 percent, and have since moderated to 2.67 percent this year.

How to differentiate within EMs

"Growth, or the lack of it, is of greater concern to investors this time round, particularly given the sharp economic slowdowns in many emerging markets, notably in Russia and Brazil," added Spiro.

Convergent Wealth Advisors' Zier told CNBC investors have been inaccurately blaming the U.S. Federal Reserve's tapering program for the emerging market selloff.

(Read More: Will China be the 'savior' of emerging markets?)

"You hear talk that the taper has been a drain on emerging markets, [but] when you look at the data, 92 percent of the money that's come from the taper has ended up on banks' balance sheets. So what's happening with the taper is, it's not sucking the money out of emerging markets, it never went there in the first place," he added.

Zier said investors' perception of weaker growth in the region was overblown and economies in the region would likely recover along with the U.S. and the rest of the global economy.

"I think we're going to see growth across the board, of between 3 to 4 percent in gross domestic product globally. The economy, particularly in the U.S., is stronger than people think. We'll see 8 to 10 percent earnings growth in the US... which certainly would be supportive of emerging markets," he added.

(Read More: Has the Fed left emerging markets out in the cold?)

Zier recommended snapping up opportunities in the region now as EM valuations were offering a 50 percent discount on U.S. stocks.

"In the U.S. you can buy a dollar's worth of earnings for $17 and in emerging markets you can buy that same dollar of earnings for about $9.50, so it's really, really cheap over there," said Zier.

"It's just a matter of time before the market wakes up... this always happens - markets stay undervalued or overvalued longer than you expect," he added, highlighting Brazil, India, China and Eastern Europe. He recommended avoiding Argentina, Thailand and Turkey.

By CNBC's Katie Holliday: Follow her on Twitter @hollidaykatie