— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on March 3, Monday.
Welcome to the CNBC Business Daily.
The Cold War could be heating up again in Eastern Europe.
Russia has annexed the Black Sea pennisula of Crimea in its most blatant land grab since the invasion of Georgia.
Ukraine is gearing up for war but while US Secretary of State John Kerry has warned Russia that it could face isolation for its actions, European nations have expressed reluctance to impose trade sanctions for fear that Russian supplies of gas could be cut off.
But will any of this have a long term impact on global markets? Maybe not. Here's what the analysts had to say:
[Soundbyte on tape by Joe Magyer, Senior Analyst, The Motley Fool] I think the odds of this escalating into a full scale conflict that would meaningfully and structurally rattle global markets are pretty low. I think essentially the Russians are interested in taking this land, they're prepared and willing to fight for it, and I dont think the US is willing to stand up for it ultimately. Theyll talk a big game - the US is very good at talking a big game. We might un-friend Russia on Facebook but ultimately I don't think this is going to come to major blows with the US and I don't think it's going to rattle the markets in a structural way.
[Soundbyte on tape by David Lennox, Resources Analyst, Fat Prophets] If you have a look at the commodities, there's been quite a muted response to what's happening in the Ukraine. Russia is now obviously on the ground in the Crimea, so that's going to make it difficult for any sort of non-verbal response from the West. We think that for gold, it's very much a matter of reacting to what the US dollar's doing. We're not really expecting the gold price to do much unless we see an escalation in military action in the region.
[Soundbyte on tape by Jonathan Pain, Author, "The Pain Report"] The only card I think the West has right now is sanctions - financial sanctions and all those types of measures against Russia. But Russia can turn around and cut off gas supplies to Western Europe, because much of the gas for Western Europe goes through Ukraine - 35% of Western European gas is supplied through Ukraine, so it could get very, very messy.
[Soundbyte from Richard Yetsenga, Head of Global Markets Research, ANZ] Markets will treat this with obviously, some importance in the very short term, but markets have short attention spans. Given the US numbers we have coming up this week, given the movements in the renminbi, given that Chinese interest rates have been coming down quite sharply, I think unless it escalates, it will start to lose some impact relative to those other drivers.
I'm Sri Jegarajah, reporting from CNBC's Asia headquarters in Singapore.
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