Mad Money

Aging bull: Could the market get walloped?

Hey bull market, it's your birthday!

(Click for video linked to a searchable transcript of this Mad Money segment)

Investors are preparing for a major market milestone. The current bull is celebrating a big birthday on Sunday.

Although there won't be formal party with cake and ice cream, there will certainly be a lot of noise.

That's because, the current bull market started on March 9, 2009, when stocks first began their long march higher after the worst plunge since the Great Depression.

That makes this bull market 5 years old, and according to published reports, over the past 80 years the average bull has lasted 3.8 years.

Skeptics say this bull is simply too old to keep going.

Siegfried Layda | Photographer's Choice | Getty Images

Always interested in the reasons why bears are convinced the market could tumble, Jim Cramer, the host of "Mad Money," parsed through the many arguments for an impending decline and noted the following

1. The IPO market has been prolific. "If you believe that IPOs represent froth than we are the frothiest we've been since the top in 2007," Cramer said.

2. NYSE margin debt hit a record $451 billion. "The thinking here is that, as a measure of euphoria, margin debts are unrivaled so we are certainly about to get walloped," Cramer said.

3. Record junk bond issuance. Again, the appetite for junk bonds, or higher yielding bonds, could be a sign of euphoria.

4. Record issuance of biotech IPOs. In this case, bears point to events of 1999, when genomic companies were raising cash through IPOs, though only preliminary data existed on the drugs in development. Those events didn't end well.

5. A growing number of companies are trading at new 52-week highs. The bearish argument suggests the economy isn't strong enough to warrant the growing share price; that is, companies can't grow into their valuations anytime soon.

Although Cramer appreciates these arguments, he doesn't think they are compelling enough to exit the market.

That's not to say Cramer doesn't think stocks can fall, he does. It's simply that the Mad Money host believes a pullback is nothing to fear.

He feels that companies are leaner and more efficient than they've been in quite a while. That should drive profits and ultimately share price.

Also, he believes there are long-term trends in the market, such as the North American energy renaissance, the interest in healthy eating, the development of promising new medicines and more, all of which should drive corporate profits, and in turn, stocks.

And he's convinced that the global economy is making incremental improvements. That too should drive demand.

Read more from Mad Money with Jim Cramer
Small stock with big prospects
Secret weapon to thwart Putin?
Results to generate a virtuous ripple

All told, Cramer just can't feel pessimistic about future prospects of business or, by proxy, the state of the stock market.

"I dreaded this day's coming. I dreaded the bull market anniversary because I knew that it would prompt a slew of articles about how this is now one of the older bull markets, and that it's already overstayed its welcome," Cramer said.

"I say happy fifth birthday, bull market! You've managed to rally 177% yet most commentators and investors don't even believe you exist. Long may you run!"

Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC

Questions for Cramer?

Questions, comments, suggestions for the "Mad Money" website?