Mad Money

Estimates too low for these 3 stocks: Cramer


There's something going on in the energy sector, and Jim Cramer doesn't think the Street fully understands the impact.

Specifically, oil coming from the fields in the is selling at a sharp discount to oil pumped from other places.

"How big a discount are we talking about? Right now, West Texas crude sells for $10 less than Brent, the world price, that's $108 versus $98," Cramer explained. "However, oil from the Permian is selling at an additional $8 discount to the West Texas Price, so $90."

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At issue is tremendous supply of oil coming out of the Permian versus the limited amount of pipeline. "Permian producers have to duke it out for space so they're taking discounts," Cramer explained.

As a result, the refineries on the Gulf of Mexico, which are on the other end of the pipelines, are able to buy the $90 oil and then sell their refined products based off the $108 world price.

"They're making a killing on the spread," Cramer said. "I think that means outsized profits for Alon, Marathon Petroleum and HollyFrontier."

However, that doesn't mean you should buy and then hold these stocks for any length of time.

"You see, two new pipelines are opening in June," Cramer explained. That should shrink the spreads considerably," and level out the supply imbalance. Therefore the following investment idea comes with an expiration date.

"The refiners mentioned above all report in the first week of May," Cramer explained. "I bet they run right into their quarters, as more and more people figure out the importance of the Permian discount. But then I think they could decline thereafter, because when they forecast, they'll have talk about the two new pipes opening in June and how it could impact profitability."

That makes Alon, Marathon Petroleum and or HollyFrontier a short-term trade with Cramer advocating a long position into earnings but not thereafter.

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Now make no mistake, this stock idea is only appropriate for investors comfortable moving in and out of position with aplomb.

However, if you're nimble, Cramer suggests keeping an eye on the these refiners. "If they sell off along with the broad market you may be looking at a terrific entry point, for a trade."

Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC

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