We could move quickly to fresh historic highs (1878.04 was the S&P 500 Index's closing historic high on March 7th) if there is no violence in the Crimea, and particularly if Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen emphasizes that there will be no early rise in the Fed funds rate. Yellen is also widely expected to reduce its unemployment target lower, to 6 percent from 6.5 percent.
But the conviction level is not high. Volume has been abysmal, among the lowest of the year. Also, bear in mind that despite all the euphoria in the last two days, the S&P 500 is essentially unchanged on the year (OK, we're up one percent to be exact, but you get the point). At the end of the first quarter of last year, the S&P was up 10 percent.