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Markets may deep chill if spring thaw doesn't show up soon

VIDEO1:2501:25
Manufacturing a key stat in the week ahead

April could be the cruelest month for stocks so far this year if warmer weather doesn't reverse a trend of weaker economic data.

The first big release is Friday's employment report, and the pressure is on for the March number to be stronger than February's 175,000—and even better than the consensus estimate of 195,000 nonfarm payrolls.

"If we get 150,000—190,000, it's not momentum. It's basically the average we've had for the last year or so," said George Goncalves, head of rate strategy at Nomura. He said in order to excite markets, the number will have to top 200,000 or more.