As the first quarter ends, analyst estimates for Q1 earnings continue to slide. At this point, analysts expect to see year-over-year earnings growth that is not just anemic, but actually negative.
If those expectations play out, then it will be only the second quarter of negative earnings growth for the S&P 500 since 2009.
At the end of 2013, analysts predicted that S&P 500 companies would show earnings growth of 4.4 percent in the first quarter compared with the year prior. Those expectations have fallen 4 percent over the course of the quarter, so that a decline of 0.4 percent is now anticipated, according to FactSet.
The last time the S&P 500 earnings growth rate went negative was in the third quarter of 2012, when earnings dropped by 1.0 percent. Before that, the S&P 500 had not shown negative growth since the fourth quarter of 2009.
The good news is that just as it's not unusual to see earnings estimates drop over the course of a quarter (in fact, over the past five years, the bottom-up earnings per share has fallen by 4.4 percent during the average quarter), it's also typical to see the final analyst estimates to undershoot expectations.