These factors may not add up to a good jobs number

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Traders are speculating Friday's March jobs report could top economists' forecasts, yet there is more negative anecdotal labor-related data for the month than positive.

Economists expect to see 200,000 jobs created in March, and an unemployment rate of 6.6 percent, according to Thomson Reuters. In February, 175,000 jobs were added, and the unemployment rate was 6.7 percent.

Ian Lyngen, senior Treasury strategist with CRT Capital, compiled a list showing the nine negative factors and five positive labor anecdotes, ahead of the release of the March employment report.

One of those anecdotes is that the March payrolls data disappoint more often than they beat expectations.

Lyngen said the March jobs data tend to disappoint on the downside versus market forecasts 65 percent of the time, with an average miss of of 82,000. The release comes in higher-than-expected 35 percent of the time, with an average surprise of 55,000.

Job market anecdotes (Courtesy of Ian Lyngen at CRT Capital)


1) ISM Manufacturing Employment, declined slightly but still above 50 at 51.1 March vs. 52.3 Feb.

2) Chicago PMI Employment dropped sharply to 50.0 in March vs. 59.3 Feb.

3) ADP Employment Change, March—slightly lower-than-anticipated at 191k vs. 178k revised-Feb and 195k consensus.

4) Empire State Employment decreased to 5.88 March vs. 11.2 Feb. Average Work week gained, reaching +4.71 Mar vs. +3.75 Feb.

5) Labor Differential: Jobs-Hard-to-Get minus Plentiful decreased to -19.9 March vs. -19.0 Feb. First decline since October 2013 (when NFP was +204k).

6) Philadelphia Fed Number of Employees declined to +1.7 March vs. +4.8 Feb. Average work week jumped to +3.1 vs. -7 Feb.

7) Historically, the April's release of March's NFP data tends to disappoint on the downside vs. market forecasts 65 percent of the time with an average of -82k. The release comes in higher than expected 35 percent of the time and with an average surprise of +55k.

8) NFIB said firms added an average of +0.18 workers March vs. +0.11 in Feb—sixth consecutive positive month.

9) Liscio is predicting a +175k increase in private NFP vs. 200k consensus. They are in line with the consensus call for a 6.6 percent unemployment rate—down 0.1 oercent.


1) ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment, gained sharply to 53.6 March vs. 47.5 Feb.

2) Initial Claims for NFP-survey week were lower at 323k March vs. 330k Feb. The four-week moving-average for March was lower at 319k vs. 337k in Feb.

3) Continuing Claims for March were slightly lower at 2.836 mm vs. 2.850 mm Feb.

4) The April Unemployment print (March's data) comes in lower-than-expected 47 percent of the time, and higher-than-expected 29 percent of the time. The lower-than-forecast prints have been -0.13 percent on average vs. +0.10 percent norm when it comes in higher.

5) Challenger Layoffs dropped -7.4k MoM vs. -3.2k Feb and were -30.2 percent YoY vs. -24.4 percent Feb.

Read MoreSpring thaw? Private sector ramps up job creation

—By CNBC's Patti Domm.