File this one under "socially awkward." It's been a very rough month for shares of Twitter, which are down just under 20 percent in March, and over 30 percent since the beginning of the year. Brian Kelly of Brian Kelly Capital isn't ready to throw in the towel, and thinks the negative sentiment on the stock has gone entirely too far.
Kelly said Thursday on CNBC's "Fast Money" that Facebook had a lockup of 800 million shares in November 2012, when the stock was sitting at $20 per share. Today, Facebook is trading around $60. That represents a large move, considering much of the street was worried about insiders selling their shares.
Those so-called insiders didn't sell, sending Facebook shares soaring. Kelly said, "If Twitter's price were higher, I would be worried about insider selling. But at these prices, only a small amount of insiders have chosen to sell during past lockup expirations."
Dan Nathan of RiskReversal.com said he "wouldn't touch the stock with my bare hands." According to Nathan, it's unlikely that Twitter's user engagement and subscriber growth have changed in the past three months.
Nathan also pointed out that the technicals on the chart are a disaster, with the $40 level probably acting as the bottom.
"Twitter will have its Facebook moment, when it gets bottomed out, but it hasn't had it quite yet," he said.
Disclosure: Kelly is long TWTR, FB; Nathan has no positions in either company.