Talking Numbers

Why gold could get going again

Gold could get going again

A goldilocks jobs report is giving a boost to gold.

Nonfarm payrolls for the month of March were 192,000 when the market was expecting about 200,000. That sent the yellow metal soaring more than $20 higher to over $1,305 per ounce Friday.

A tepid economic recovery is viewed as a potential excuse for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates lower via its bond-buying stimulus for a longer period of time. Lower rates and more dollars in the economy are considered favorable for gold prices.

(Read: Gold ends 1.5% higher on jobs data; logs weekly gain)

Mark Newton, chief technical analyst at Greywolf, sees the recent move up in gold as the start of a long-term bull market in bullion.

"I think gold is a very good risk/reward opportunity on the long side," said Newton. He sees a reverse head and shoulders pattern that has formed in the past year, targeting above $1,400 per ounce.

"That's the one thing I think is fairly bullish," said Newton. "The chart has gotten a bit oversold in the last couple of years and now you're starting to stabilize."

As well, in a nearer-term chart, Newton sees gold as having broken out of a downtrend in January that began in August 2012.

"That should help gold really start to accelerate," said Newton, who is invested in metals as well as the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (the GDX) and the iShares Silver Trust ETF (the SLV). "We're approaching a very bullish seasonal time also getting into the summer through the fall."

(Read: Job growth close enough for government work—and traders)

On the other side, CNBC contributor Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, is bearish on gold in the long term because she sees an improving economy, rising interest rates and a stronger dollar in the future. However, she thinks there may yet be more rallies in the shorter term.

"There are some short term that actually could provide some support to gold," said Sanchez. "A more tepid jobs report would help that. But we also heard Yellen coming out, trying to calm the markets down saying basically a very dovish statement."

Sanchez also views Russia's recent military buildup on Ukraine's border as being supportive of gold.
"I think the longer trade is probably down," said Sanchez. "But, there's an argument for holding it right now."

To see the full discussion on gold, with Newton on the technicals and Sanchez on the fundamentals, watch the video above.

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