Talking Numbers

Here's where the selling could stop for tech

Here's where the selling could stop for tech

The Nasdaq composite index is getting crushed as it saw its biggest three-day drop since November 2011.

Rock star stocks like Amazon and Tesla were lower on Monday, helping to bring the Nasdaq down 1.16 percent on the day. The index is down by 5.9 percent for the past 30 days.

Yet not all Nasdaq stocks were having a blue Monday. Microsoft, Intel and Cisco were all up decently for the day. But, although the Nasdaq has broken below 4,100, that doesn't mean this is a buying opportunity at these levels, according to Talking Numbers contributor Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson.

(Watch: Playing tech's tumble)

"The trade that we're seeing is what I'm calling 'out with the new, in with the old' [with] the market seeking safety in the old stalwarts," said Ross. "I don't think that's a good idea."

One such tech stalwart that Ross sees as potentially problematic is Oracle. Though its stock fell 1.3 percent Monday, it is within $7 of its August 2000 highs.

"If you're chasing Oracle into prices which we last saw at the tech bubble back in 1999/2000, that's a pretty bad place to hide," said Ross. "I would still be a seller here."

Ross sees the Nasdaq as having traded in a well-defined upward-sloping trend channel since the end of 2012. For most of last year and until Monday, the index stayed above its 100-day moving average, which is currently near 4,152. While Ross believes the Nasdaq may find a little bit of short-term support at the bottom of the trend channel, he thinks it will head down further.

"Ultimately, I think we break below that trend channel," said Ross. "I think we find better support around the 200-day [moving average], around the 3,900 level. But, that's another 5 percent from here, so I would still be cautious. Sometimes, your first lost is your best lost in this business."

(See: CNBC's Technology coverage)

CNBC contributor Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, agrees with Ross and said the Nasdaq's problem is its valuation. She thinks that while investors are fleeing growth stocks to the safety of value-based companies, they may find those valuations to be too stretched.

"Value at these levels still isn't there," said Sanchez. "You still have to go quite a bit further before you reach attractive valuations and the tech names are exactly the names that tend to suffer this kind of a rotation first."

Sanchez believes investor sentiment can also be seen in similar declines with small-cap stocks. The small-cap benchmark index, the Russell 2000, is also down more than 5 percent in the past month.

"I wouldn't be buying here," said Sanchez. "I would definitely still be selling."

To see the full discussion on the Nasdaq, with Ross on the technicals and Sanchez on the fundamentals, watch the video above.

[Disclosure: Ross has no position in Oracle.]

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