— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on April 23, Wednesday.
Welcome to the CNBC Business Daily.
Just when you think that we'd be done talking about financial impacts of the weather..
Now we have to tell you about an EL NINO which could come and cause commodity prices to rise.. but others, to fall.
From the likes of corn, wheat and soybean...
CNBC's Jane Wells will take you through an overview of commodities that have historically been vulnerable to EL NINO-driven price shocks.
IT'S SO DRY IN CALIFORNIA THE U-S-D-A SAYS 94 PERCENT OF THE STATE'S 45 BILLION DOLLAR FARM ECONOMY IS EXPERIENCING SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. THAT COULD ALL CHANGE.
THIS IS 1982, WHEN STORMS PUMMELED THE WEST COAST IN A WEATHER PATTERN CALLED EL NINO, WHEN WARMING WATER IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC TRAVELING NORTH AND LEADING TO WETTER, COOLER TEMPS IN THE U-S, DROUGHT IN AUSTRALIA AND ASIA.
[Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist] "It could help to alleviate California's three year drought, the three and a half year drought in places like Texas, Oklahoma, and southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas."
IT'S A LITTLE EARLY FOR CALIFORNIANS TO START DUSTING OFF THEIR UMBRELLAS, BUT GOVERNMENT METEOROLOGISTS CURRENTLY PUT THE CHANCE OF AN ELNINO LATER THIS YEAR AT 50 PERCENT...MAYBE CLOSE TO 70 PERCENT.
IF IT HAPPENS, IT COULD AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM COPPER TO CORN.
EL NINO USUALLY MEANS GOOD RAINS FOR AMERICA'S FARMS, DEPENDING ON THE TIMING, DRIVING DOWN CORN AND SOYBEAN PRICES...
THAT COULD EVENTUALLY BRING DOWN THE HIGH COST OF MEAT AS FEEDING LIVESTOCK BECOMES LESS EXPENSIVE.
BUT IN PARTS OF THE WORLD HIT BY AN EL NINO DROUGHT, LESS WHEAT COULD MEAN MORE HUNGER, AND ALREADY HIGH COCOA AND COFFEE PRICES COULD GO HIGHER.
EL NINO COULD EVEN AFFECT THE PRICE OF METALS.
[Michael Haigh, Societe Generale] "Famously in 97, 98 i believe it was that peru and ecuador had seven years' worth of rainfall confined to a four month period. and so these mines were flooded, and hence production was cut off and prices spiked."
FOR THE MOMENT, HOWEVER, IT'S ALL A BIG IF. IF THERE IS AN EL NINO HOW BIG WILL IT BE? 32 YEARS AGO IT CAUGHT CALIFORNIA OFF GUARD, AND STARS LIKE LARRY HAGMAN AND LEE MAJORS TRIED TO LIGHTEN THE MOOD.
[Larry Hagman and Lee Majors] "By the way your boat out here. (larry) yes i know you know i was gonna bring it down here and leave it in front of your place."
BUT FOR THOSE WHO DON'T LIKE THE WEATHER RIGHT NOW...JUST WAIT A FEW MONTHS,
IT COULD CHANGE. BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR. FOR CNBC ASIA, I'M JANE WELLS IN LOS ANGELES.
The Californian drought has been giving farmers a hard time.
They now have to think of ways to keep their irrigation channels working.
But as we just learned... Mother Nature could have other plans that might help.
That wraps up this edition of the Business Daily.
I'm Sri Jegarajah, reporting from CNBC's Asian headquarters.