Talking Numbers

Why the gold rally could be short-lived

Why the gold rally could be short-lived

If you like a little volatility, gold could be your game right now.

Early in the morning, higher U.S. jobless claims helped slam gold futures down to $1,269 per ounce, a 10-week low. Then, in a matter of minutes, reported violence in Ukraine and troop movements on both sides of the Ukraine/Russia border sent gold on a quick rebound toward $1,300 per ounce, where it came up against resistance at its 200-day moving average.

(Read: Gold edges higher as Ukraine tensions intensify)

So how sustainable is the bounce?

Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer & Co., says don't bet on a big bullion rally, gold will continue to stay within a trading range started in the middle of last year.

"We came into the year saying 2014 was going to be a year of stabilization for gold," he said. "I think that's what we're seeing."

Gold has traded generally between $1,200 and $1,400 per ounce over the past year. Since he foresees gold potentially at risk of getting nearer to the bottom end of the range, Wald says buyers should hold off until then.

"I think that's your buying opportunity if we get down there and see an inflection from $1,200," he said. "So, I'm not buying it just yet."

(Read: Why stocks may be sniffing out inflation)

CNBC contributor Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, agrees that gold is in a sideways range but thinks gold will head lower in the long term.

"That's partially because we at some point will see rates rise," Sanchez said. However, she believes gold will stay sideways for a while because of offsetting "flight to safety" bounces from such events as trouble in Ukraine.

"I don't see gold going up from here," Sanchez said. "I see all of the fundamental factors going against gold."
Besides future higher rates, Sanchez also says that inflation isn't at a level to boost demand for gold.

"We don't have high enough inflation to really make people want to hold gold," said Sanchez. "And, we're no longer flirting with deflation. We're in that perfect place in the middle."

"Gold really is not a great bet at these levels," Sanchez said.

To see the full discussion on gold with Wald on the technicals and Sanchez on the fundamentals, watch the above video.

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