Talking Numbers

It's not if, but when, gold drops to $1,000: Strategist

It's not if, but when, gold drops to $1,000: Strategist
It's not if, but when, gold drops to $1,000: Strategist

Gold may have lost some of its luster, but if one highly respected technical analyst is correct, it's about to get a lot worse.

MacNeil Curry, head of global technical strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a note to investors, "It is time to sell gold." He doesn't think it's likely the yellow metal will move above its May 2005 high of $1,315.70 per ounce and doesn't think it's possible bullion will break above its March 2014 high of $1,331 per ounce. Instead, he sees its downside target at $1,215.

(Watch: Why you should short gold now: BofA technician)

"It does seem like a fair number," said Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson. "When you look at the chart of gold, it's very uninspiring."

Ross, a "Talking Numbers" contributor, sees short-term support around $1,272 per ounce from which gold could bounce a little.

However, Ross' long-term view is that things could get a lot worse for gold. Its 100-month moving average support is around $1,000 per ounce, which is also near gold's 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level from its 2000 lows of $264 to its 2011 highs of $1,895.

According to Ross, "$1,215 could look like a great sale on the way down to $1,000 if things really start to unravel for gold. It's just a matter of how we go down, not necessarily if we go down."
Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, is also bearish on bullion.

"Right now, I am a gold-hater," said Sanchez, a CNBC contributor. "I think that the long-term trend for gold is down."

(Read: Gold ends $1 lower as investors digest grim US data)

In the long-term, a recovering economy, strengthening dollar, and higher interest rates in the U.S. will all be negative for gold, according to Sanchez. But in the short term, recent economic stumbles because of the weather, interest rates stuck in a range, and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine are helping to keep the precious metal from falling.

"There's actually been some support for gold," Sanchez said. "But, we haven't seen a big break up in gold. I think that's also telling."

"Continued support might take it sideways but the long term is probably down," added Sanchez. "That's eventually where we're going but, we still have to get over some of these short-term issues."

To see the full discussion on gold, with Ross on the technicals and Sanchez on the fundamentals, watch the video above.

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