Barring new supply outages, global oil capacity will rise by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, the fastest growth in a decade, the bank said, while product demand will grow by 1.1 million bpd.
Fighting in Ukraine and production cuts in Libya and South Sudan pushed Brent up to a 2-1/2-month high last week.
On Sunday, a decisive win for billionaire Petro Poroshenko in Ukraine's presidential election raised hopes of political stability in Ukraine - a main gas supply route to Europe from Russia - although a fraught mission to quell pro-Russian rebels and steer the fragile nation closer to the West await him.
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"I don't think the market really factored in any new risks in there," CMC's Spooner said.
Libya's El Sharara and El Feel oilfields remain shut, a spokesman for state-run National Oil Corp (NOC) said on Sunday, almost two weeks after the government said protests at the western fields had ended.
OPEC production is likely to decline this year despite an addition of 400,000 bpd of new capacity led by Iraq and Saudi Arabia, Morgan Stanley analysts said.
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"Disruptions in Libya are likely to persist and we see little hope for a material increase in Iranian oil exports during 2014," they said.
Statoil said on Friday that it has resumed some production at the Snorre B platform in the North Sea.
Sabre-rattling between Iraq and Kurdistan over oil exports also heightened tensions in the region.
Iraq filed for arbitration against Turkey on Friday to stop exports of oil from Kurdistan after European markets bought the first load of oil piped from the autonomous region. Kurdistan said this was a "hollow threat" that will fail.