Talking Numbers

Gold is in a 'death cross'

Gold is in a 'death cross'

Gold has just made a "death cross." Is it something bullion investors should worry about?

The "death cross" was formed when gold's 50-day moving average crossed below its 200-day moving average. Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer & Co., says it's all much ado about nothing, but that doesn't mean he's bullish on gold.

"It does sound terrible," Wald said. "The thing with the 'death cross' is that it's a very late signal, for one. Two, it doesn't work very well in these sideways ranges."

(Read: Gold snaps 5-day losing streak; ends around $1,245)

Wald is bearish on gold because it is headed back toward the lower end of its recent trading range at $1,200 per ounce. "The destruction we saw last year in the first half of 2013 needs a lot more time to stabilize," he said. "You can see gold's 200-day moving average is really just starting to move sideways."

This is all happening despite bullishness in the market. A recent survey by Consensus Inc. shows 57 percent of respondents are bullish on gold. That may not be as high as the 70-plus percent earlier in the year, but it's still net bullish, albeit waning.

"I want to see that bullish number really come back down," Wald said. "Once bullishness starts to recede, we get down to $1,200, start to stabilize, then maybe it becomes attractive. Until then, [it's] going lower."

If gold breaks below $1,200, though, it could head as far down as $1,000, according to Wald. However, he doesn't believe it is likely.

"I don't think it goes below there," Wald said of the $1,000 per ounce level. "At that point, I don't even need a base, I want to buy it. But, if you don't get stabilization at $1,200, it could go to $1,000."

Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, also doesn't see much of a fundamental reason to be bullish on gold. She believes the factors that could push gold lower are in place.

"The things that tend to make gold go down are a rising rate environment, a strengthening dollar and a slow and steady recovery," said Sanchez, a CNBC contributor. "Gold does really well if there's inflation or if there's fear."

(Read: Yields rise with German debt, re-set of bearish bond bets)

Although rates have declined so far in 2014, Sanchez believes that will change. "We are starting to see the markets positioning for higher rates," she said. Gold "is going to really resume its downward trajectory. The long-term trend is down and the fundamentals support that."

But, there are three things that could turn around her view on gold.

"You need significant fear" such as war, said Sanchez. "You need the expectation of significant inflation and a derating of fiat currencies. Gold feeds on that."

"I don't expect any of those," added Sanchez, "but those are fat-tail risks."

To see the full discussion on gold, with Wald on the technicals and Sanchez on the fundamentals, watch the above video.

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