off tomorrow for a daddy/daughter date but will hit Monday. Thanks for writing in. — Brian Sullivan (@SullyCNBC)
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BlackBerry is up 45 percent in the first three weeks of the year and now it's in negative territory for 2014. But, does it have a chance to come back?
The Canadian phone maker is struggling to turn itself around as it gets trounced by a fruit of a different kind: Apple whose iPhone – and Google's Android operating system – dominates the smartphone market BlackBerry once owned. In the last five years, BlackBerry lost 91 percent of its value and is now worth just under $4 billion. To put it in perspective, Apple sold about $91.3 billion in iPhones last year according to data from FactSet.
According to Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer & Co., BlackBerry has some downside ahead based on the stock's technicals. "The charts depict a weak stock that is going lower," Wald said. "It's a sell right here."
Wald notes the stock has had lower highs over the past few years. And, he sees its near-term signals as pointing downward, too. BlackBerry was "very oversold in the first quarter," Wald said. The stock "spent the last few months moving sideways. I think that's alleviated some of that oversold conditions."
But, along with its falling 50-day moving average, Wald thinks the near-term range for BlackBerry has formed a pennant that will ultimately break lower.
"I think it does not hold the $7 support," Wald said. "It's headed back to $6."
Meanwhile, Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, is taking a "wait and see" approach to BlackBerry.
"Probably the parts are worth a little more than the price at the stock at the moment," said Sanchez, a CNBC contributor. "But, it's too soon to say whether or not BlackBerry is going to end up turning around or not."
Sanchez said that even CEO John Chen has upgraded his own chances of succeeding in reversing the downward trajectory of the company. For Sanchez, the key to the stock will be what happens to BlackBerry's mobile operating system, QNX.
"BlackBerry is hitting some good things," Sanchez said. "They were cash flow-positive this past quarter. But, I think everything is riding on QNX and whether or not QNX as a platform of connectivity is going to usher BlackBerry into the next era of profitability. Expectations right now are that they don't become profitable until mid-2015."
BlackBerry's stock is basically a call option, Sanchez said. "They are definitely trying to capitalize on their enterprise server," she added. "All of that wonderful infrastructure that they have that is very solid and it's worth something. And that's part of what they're definitely hanging their hat on."
To see the full discussion on BlackBerry, with Wald on the technicals and Sanchez on the fundamentals, watch the above video.