Erratic World Cup shakes up Goldman projections


The 2014 World Cup has knocked perennial contenders to their knees and sent defending champion Spain running off of the group stage with its tail between its legs. The results have baffled Goldman Sachs economists as much as the rest of the world.

Historically unpredictable play has shattered Goldman's statistical model for the tournament, as it has correctly picked only 36.11 percent of the 36 group stage games played so far, The Wall Street Journal reported. The bank's economists analyzed data gathered from international matches ranging back to 1960.

Arjen Robben of Netherlands celebrates during the Group B match of the 2014 World Cup between Netherlands and Chile at The Arena de Sao Paulo on June 23, 2014 in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Ian MacNicol | Getty Images

Goldman has updated its predictions, taking current standings into account, and half of the teams in the knockout round and beyond have changed, the Journal said. Notable differences include the United States advancing and the Netherlands reaching the championship game. Goldman still predicts that host Brazil will win the World Cup.

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The bank notably projected England's woes—it said the world's 10th-ranked team would lose all its games, and it has dropped both of its matches to this point.

Read the full story with Goldman's original and revised brackets here.