Mad Money

Cramer: Unappreciated dairy stock has 34% upside

Dean Foods a steal: Cramer
Dean Foods a steal: Cramer

(Click for video linked to a searchable transcript of this Mad Money segment)

Jim Cramer says this isn't the kind of stock that he normally recommends. But given the opportunity, he can't help himself.

The stock is dairy products maker Dean Foods.

On "Mad Money," Cramer regularly says he prefers WhiteWave, which was spun out of Dean Foods, because he likes the fundamental prospects of its Silk brand soy and almond milks.

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However, Cramer is currently bullish on Dean Foods, too, because he thinks investors are facing a unique opportunity in which Wall Street analysts aren't using accurate numbers as they calculate the company's raw costs.

"Dean's most important raw cost is milk," Cramer explained. "And milk prices have increased sharply from $18 for 100 pounds in early 2013 to over $24 this past May; that's a 33 percent increase."

Going forward, Cramer says many of the Street analysts are modeling Dean's future profits against these sky-high milk prices as if they're the new normal.

Cramer doesn't think they are. Here's why:

"First, the price of milk has already begun to decline, dropping 7 percent to $22.86 in June," Cramer noted. Also worldwide supply has increased. And the cost of corn and soybeans, which are fed to cows, has dropped sharply.

Looking at the future's market, Cramer thinks his outlook is being confirmed by milk contracts. "For December, they are down to $19, which represents a 25 percent decline from the peak price in May."

"Rather than listen to the analysts, if you actually look at what's happening with milk, I think it's reasonable to assume prices are coming down dramatically," Cramer concluded.

And Cramer says none of that is factored in.

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"And as the price of milk comes down, I think profits go higher, estimates go higher and ultimately Dean Foods goes higher. In fact I think it goes back up to $22.50, where the stock peaked last summer. That's about a 34 percent gain from current levels."

However, it's important to note, that once the stock rallies to Cramer's price target, Cramer is a seller. "Dean is a trade, a bet on estimate bumps because analysts are behind the curve. However, it's nothing more than that, so if you buy, you must also be prepared to sell, at least when the time comes."

Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC

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