Strong second-quarter GDP growth just got stronger and prospects for the third quarter also improved, after the Commerce Department reported the trade gap narrowed 7 percent in June on falling oil imports.
According to a CNBC/Moody's Analytics rapid update, economists upped their forecasts to a median of 4.2 percent for second-quarter growth, from the reported 4 percent level. They also raised their forecasts for the third quarter up by 0.1 percent to 3.1 percent.
"It's good news," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. "Much of the growth—1.7 percent of the 4.0—was pure inventory building. That's temporary."
The trade deficit at $41.5 billion is the lowest since January. Imports fell 1.2 percent in June, to $237.4 billion, and petroleum imports fell to $27.4 billion, the lowest level since late 2010.
Rupkey said the third quarter now looks like it's growing at about 3 percent. "3 percent ... is the magical divide between sustainable growth and the level of growth that makes the Fed worry," he said.
Second-quarter growth, expected by economists to be just 3 percent or lower, was a surprise when it was reported last week. Second-quarter GDP will be announced with revisions on Aug. 28.
Exports rose by 0.1 percent to a record high of $195.9 billion, on the back of strong sales of automobiles, parts and engines.
"It looks like it will be sustained. The foreign exchange market isn't mispriced," Rupkey said. "World growth is continuing for now. ... The only worry is if Europe goes offline and that depends on geopolitical risks."
—By CNBC's Patti Domm