Read MoreWill August gains give way to September pain?
Any turn toward a more hawkish tone could send rates rising on their own. That said, the bond market has been known to "go rogue" (see: vigilantes, bond market). Some might argue that the bond market has already gone rogue, albeit to the downside in yield. There is a good chance the high yield on the 10 year this year will be just 3 percent. Incredible.
Europe: hurt or help?
One reason rates remain so low is the renewed economic woe of Europe. The German economy contracted last quarter, and France and Italy remain fiscal wrecks. Those economies are roughly two-thirds of the entire euro zone economic output. The European Central Bank can't and likely won't sit idly by and watch these economies tumble without trying something.
Read MoreHow Europe's slump could doom Ukraine
Whatever you want to call it — credit softening, quantitative easing, money printing, a hail mary, etc. — some form of stimulus is on the way. The question for American investors is which will matter more to our markets: any liquidity-driven stimulative push of the ECB … or a continued deflationary downward spiral for Europe's major economies slamming our exports and thus our biggest stocks.