While stocks in the U.S. are in the midst of an historic rally, there are some troubling signs across the pond.
The euro just hit a 14-month low and registered the worst weekly loss since November as market participants come to the belated realization that ECB Chairman Mario Drahgi is about to make like former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and do whatever it takes to avoid a once in a generation depression.
So, how much worse could it get for the euro, which could hold the key to our market's next move?
"[The euro] is going lower," said Rich Ross Auerbach Grayson. "This chart is a disaster in both the short-term and long-term."
Ross warned not to catch the falling knife when looking at the currency's short-term chart. "We've broken below both the 150-day moving average and the neckline of a bearish double top," Ross said. When currencies or stocks break below a "neckline," technicians believe more losses are in store as key support levels have been breached. The 150-moving average is also important, as the smooths out day-to-day fluctuations and offers a clearer idea of where investors think a particular security going.
"The breakdown gives us measured downside to 1.3000, where we are today. I see us going lower and testing the 1.2750 level that takes us back to the lows we put in last year."
But what really concerned Ross is the longer-term downtrend dating back to 2008 that formed on the weekly chart. "It really goes from bad to worse here," he said. "Look for potential downside to 1.2000."
Gina Sanchez of Chantico Global also doesn't see many reasons to get bullish Europe's common currency. She sees a one-two punch of deflation and GDP stagnation as holding the euro down.
"The euro is clearly reacting to the poor economic prospects," she said. "Market participants are not yet buying the new Draghi moves as credible against the threat of stagnation and deflation."