Talking Numbers

This chart says the S&P could rally another 20%

This chart says the S&P could rally another 20%

They say you can't know where you're going until you know where you've been. And that seems to hold true with the S&P 500, at least according to one technical analyst.

"As market technicians we often use history as a guide to understanding the current market environment," said Piper Jaffray's Craig Johnson, who used a chart of the S&P 500 from 1933 to 1965 to predict another 20 percent upside in the markets by the end of 2015.

"When I look at the chart, it tells me that we are in a new secular bull market," Johnson said. "When we define secular bull market, it's a market like we saw from 1952 to 1966 and a market we had seen from 1982 to 1999."

He pointed out three similarities to the market in the 1950s versus the present.

"As you can see in the charts, the broader market has been in a secular consolidation range for more than 10 years. Second, similarly to the bear market in the 1940s, the bear market that began in 2000 had two well-defined peaks before breaking out to new highs. Third, interest rates in the U.S. in the 1940 to 1950 period were near historical lows (similar to today)."

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Johnson said that the pattern suggests the S&P could hit 2,100 by the end of 2014 and 2,350 by the end of 2015. Johnson has been bullish and correctly called the equity rally in the past two years.

"We're really constructive on the market and we think investors should be looking to buy the dips in the market, and not looking and fearing the markets as we continue to press ahead with new highs."

But the charts only tell one side of the story, and according to Chantico Global's Gina Sanchez, the market isn't in the same fundamental place as it was in the 1950s.

"Right now we are still in the process of clearing the decks," she said. "Even though we've made progress since the recession, we still have a ways to go."

Sanchez noted that policy accommodation has contributed to the bull run, and said the market will begin to go through a transition period as the possibility of a rate hike increases.

"I'm not sure if during the transition period the market will be all systems go, but we will see."

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