Dollar sits back after record-breaking run higher

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Major currencies recovered some ground against the dollar on Monday after the dollar index racked up a 10th straight week of gains, its longest winning streak since its free float in 1973.

The exception to the rule was the Australian dollar, infected by concerns over global growth and specifically the suggestion at a meeting of G20 that China might hold off from further stimulus for the economy.

The fell half a percent to a 7-month low of $0.8866 in morning trade in Europe and one-month volatility—bets on the scale of swings in the Aussie's value that traders use to hedge growing risk - jumped to a 6-month high of 8.95 percent.


The bigger currency pairs were taking a breather after one of the most volatile and event-filled weeks in more than a year, although there is plenty of data and policymaker comment spread through this week for investors to get their teeth into.

Top of the agenda for the euro is European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's appearance in the European parliament (1300 GMT), which follows a lukewarm take-up for the bank's latest scheme to push more money through the financial system.

If purchasing managers surveys on Tuesday point to more weakness in the euro zone economy, it will fuel speculation that Draghi will be forced to embark on the sort of outright money-printing to which U.S. policymakers have just called a halt.

BTM have the euro at $1.27 by the end of this year then falling to $1.20 next, underpinned by a widening gap in U.S. and European market interest rates that reflect expectations the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs next year.

The euro traded just over 0.1 percent higher on the day at $1.2842 after touching a 14-month trough of $1.2826. The dollar was flat against a basket of currencies at 84.723.

Growth Demands

While sterling gained around 0.3 percent to $1.6333, it has made little headway since Friday's Scottish referendum result.

Major political risks - including the fallout from the vote to reject independence and next May's general election in the United Kingdom - still lie ahead for the pound and other British assets.

The also clawed back some lost territory after slumping to a six-year low against the dollar late last week, although the gains were modest.

There was little help from a weekend meeting of G20 finance ministers and bank chiefs in Cairns, Australia, where currencies got little mention. The G20 said they were close to adding an extra $2 trillion to the global economy and creating millions of new jobs, but Europe's extended stagnation remained a major stumbling block.

China's Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said he would not dramatically alter policy because of any one economic indicator, cooling any speculation of swift action against an economic slowdown seen by a number of economists.

That put pressure on currencies from a number of economies which depend on strong growth in China supporting global sentiment or trade flows, including the Aussie.

—By Reuters

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