No one cares about the 'death cross'

The death cross is a technical signal that occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses through and below the 200-day moving average — and many interpret it as a signal of weakness ahead. This just happened in the Russell 2000 index and it has caused the Twittersphere to explode with predictions of a coming crash.

Now, look — no need to become an alarmist at all.

Shadow of a cross
Stephane Victor | Getty Images

Here's the funny thing about technical analysis — by the time the death cross happens, the move has mostly already happened. In this case, the Russell is already down 7 percent from the June high as we hit the death cross.

Read MoreTime to worry? Russell 2000 hits 'death cross'

If you believe the death cross, then you expect another leg down — but to where? Many expect that the move will probably test and find support near the July S&P 500 low of 1105 which is only another 1.5 percent lower from here. And if they test the May lows of 1090/1100, that is only 2 percent from here. So if you are making the bet that a crash is coming — guess what? You missed it. In fact, many might argue that taking the opposite side of the argument will yield better results long-term as the weakness sets up for an entry point.

Now, you have to believe that the reasons for the original move lower have been settled. Was it the Federal Reserve withdrawal causing investors to re-price these small cap/momentum names? Is it expectations of rates rising sooner than expected? If so, then the move is done. The Fed has withdrawn and Janet Yellen has assured us that rates are not going anywhere for now. And so now we will see. If the macro data weakens then, yes, there will be more pressure on stocks — and not just the small caps. But if the macro data continues to come in mixed to stable as the Fed expects — then we can expect some churn as it builds a base.

Read MoreWhat the 'death cross' says about market weakness

For the most part, it is more the time of year, some of the broader geopolitical events and the continuing weakness out of Europe that are causing the sense of apathy. September is typically a weak month and as of today, the broader market is down 1 percent from the start of the month — nothing to panic about — but it is in keeping with tradition.

Earnings season begins in two weeks — analysts have been making adjustments. Stocks that are adjusted downward are reacting ahead of time and will usually rally once the earnings are announced and 'beat' the estimate. Stocks whose estimates have not been adjusted will usually churn or sell off on the "news" — as many traders will have bought the rumor and will now sell the news. Either way, most investors are not expecting any real selloff — a pullback, yes. Many expect the market to find support at the S&P 50-day moving average of 1975 and the Dow 50 day moving average of 16937.

Read MoreHere are buying opportunities in small caps: Pro

So all this noise about the death cross is just that — noise. As much as it all sounds good, the other indexes are NOT confirming the same weakness — traders who are nervous will always go to the most volatile names to raise cash and that is what we are witnessing.

Commentary by Kenny Polcari, director of NYSE floor operations at O'Neil Securities. He is also a CNBC contributor, often appearing on "Power Lunch." Follow Kenny on Twitter @kennypolcari and visit him at

Disclosure: The market commentary is the opinion of the author and is based on decades of industry and market experience; however no guarantee is made or implied with respect to these opinions. This commentary is not nor is it intended to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment. The comments noted herein should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial product, or an official statement or endorsement of O'Neil Securities or its affiliates.