Is it time to buy the pound?


It hasn't taken sterling long to lose all the gains from the relief rally which followed Scotland's vote against independence.

Yet its continued weakness, motivated by continued political uncertainty and muted interest rate expectations, may present a buying opportunity, according to currency strategists at Citi.

Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Here, we take a look at why the current dip may be an opportunity to buy the pound.

Political risks

First up are two U.K. by-elections on October 9. One, motivated by a Conservative member of parliament (MP) changing over to the UK Independence Party (UKIP), may lead to UKIP gaining its first parliamentary seat through an election rather than defection, although this would not be a surprise.

The other, in Heywood and Middleton, follows the death of the Labour Party incumbent. If UKIP make serious inroads here, it would demonstrate the anti-European Union party's ability to chip into the vote of both Labour and the Conservative Party. Yet this might actually be positive for sterling, if it shows that Labour's vote is eroded by UKIP, as that might make a Conservative victory more likely, according to Valentin Marinov, head of European G10 currency strategy at Citi.

Further down the line, there are increasing concerns that the next general election, in May, will result in either a victory for the Labour Party or a hung parliament, which could be more unpredictable. However, polls at this stage show anything from a 1 percent lead for the Conservative Party (the latest YouGov poll) to a 6 percent lead for Labour (Populus). As the Conservative Party tends to do better in elections than polls, it's not quite time to declare a Labour victory yet.

Read MoreIs the market underestimating the UK Labour party?

Interest rates: sooner or later?

The expectation that the Bank of England would become the first major central bank to raise interest rates since the credit crisis helped fuel sterling's rally earlier in the year. As the noises from the Bank's policy makers have become more cautious, bets on interest rate rises have been scaled back.

Yet the housing market, one of the Bank's key concerns, appears more subdued, while revised growth figures suggest the U.K.'s economy has been in better shape for longer than previously thought.

It's the economy…

Now that the potential black (or tartan) swan of Scottish independence is out of the way, "cyclical drivers" should be the main driver for U.K. investment, according to Deutsche Bank's Oliver Harvey, a currency and macroeconomic strategist who is positive on sterling.