Talking Numbers

This chart has bond traders freaking out

This chart has bond traders freaking out
This chart has bond traders freaking out

Betting against U.S. Treasurys is the trade ruining careers and wiping out year-end bonuses on Wall Street.

Since the start of the year, the yield on the 10-year has fallen from 3.02 percent to 2.09 percent despite a myriad of calls for higher rates as the economy picks up steam and the Federal Reserve looks to end its massive stimulus program.

But with just two and a half months to go, the 10-year yield is down at levels not seen since May 2013. At one point on Wednesday, the yield was trading at 1.87 percent. And some traders see it going lower.

"I would liken [the] decline almost like a 'flash crash,'" said Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson. "That could be the equivalent to an 800- point move in the Dow Industrials."

(Read: US Treasurys climb on weak US economic data; yields at 2%)

The spike down broke through what Ross sees as a downward sloping trend channelthat began at the start of 2014. In technical analysis, a break below a trend channel portends to lower prices or, in this case, yields.

The long-term chart makes a case for further declines in rates, according to Ross. Yields on the 10-year broke below their technically significant 200-week moving average last week. Wednesday's run-up in bonds led the yield to also pierce below a support level Ross says was in place at around 2 percent.

"Just last year, we were at 1.6 percent," Ross said. "The story has probably gotten a little bit worse in terms of rates moving lower and bond prices moving higher. So I think there is a case for sub-2 percent yields and in fact a potential retest of that 1.6 level is perhaps a worse-case scenario in terms of rates and your best-case scenario if you're looking to refinance your mortgage."

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Investors have been flocking to the safety of bonds as the global economy shows signs of stalling. That has driven bond interest rates to record lows throughout Europe. Yields move down as bond prices rise.

David Seaburg, head of equity sales trading at Cowen and Company, sees rates on the 10-year staying in a range between 1.8 and 2.5 percent. He cites Europe's lack of growth as one of the big reasons.

"We're really anchored to rest of the world right now," Seaburg said, adding the U.S. also has growth concerns and an economy that is hesitating to borrow money. "No growth and no loan demand equal low rates. I think low rates are here for a little while."

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