Talking Numbers

Should you bag Coach shares?

Should you bag Coach shares?

Talk about a fashion faux pas. Coach shares fell like a bag of bricks Tuesday to a its lowest level in nearly five years after the luxury goods company reported mixed earnings results.

Slowing sales in North America and an increasingly fragile overseas picture hammered shares to the tune of 6 percent, this on a day when the S&P 500 rose more than 1 percent.

Coach is now the second-worst performing stock in the S&P 500 year-to-date, down nearly 40 percent.

So, is the weakness a buying opportunity, or has the stock simply gone out of style?

"If you are a patient investor, I think Coach is a buy," said Marc Lichtenfeld of the Oxford Club, who believes Coach is a classic contrarian story.

"We've seen this story many times before, and I think I know how it ends. You have a formerly hot brand or company that runs into a rough patch and everybody piles on the negative sentiment," said Lichtenfeld, comparing Coach's performance this year to that of Hasbro in 2012 and Intel's performance in 2013.

"Sentiment is so negative right now. You have 25 out of 36 analysts who rate it a hold or a sell, you have 28 million shares sold short," added Lichtenfeld. "Typically, when sentiment is so negative and you go the other way, you make a lot of money."

But according to Mark Newton of Greywolf Execution Partners, the charts show the trend is still negative.

"Technically I think it's a sell," said Newton. "As tempting as it is to try to pick the lows in a stock that's down more than 50 percent from its highs, you just haven't seen sufficient signs of it bottoming out yet."

Newton pointed out on a longer-term chart that the stock has broken below a four-year trend and is starting to show signs of consolidation. "[Coach] continues to show signs of weakness and underperformance," he said. "My thinking is it is going to go down to $30 [per share] and potentially down to $26. That would be a much better area to buy."

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