Trader Talk

What can stop the rally?

Pisani's market open: Q4 market leaders
Pisani's market open: Q4 market leaders

Another day, another new high. Ebola, Ukraine, ISIS—nothing has killed this rally. It's the 39th time this year the S&P 500 has closed at a new high.

We also have record earnings, near-record profit margins—9.7 percent for the S&P 500, well above the 10-year average of 8.5 percent—and declining unemployment.

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Several beaten-up sectors have rebounded nicely. Housing stocks in particular have been on a tear recently The SPDR Homebuilders ETF is above its highs in the late summer and not far from an historic high.

Still, the market leaders in the fourth quarter are all defensive: Utilities, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples.


1) The Nikkei closed up 2 percent on press reports that the second phase of a Japanese consumer sales tax hike may be delayed.

2) DR Horton, the biggest home builder in the country, reported fourth earnings. The good news: orders were up 38 percent, above expectations, and average selling price rose a respectable 6.3 percent.

However, the stock has been trading down for a number of reasons. Earnings of 45 cents per share came in short of consensus of 48 cents. DR Horton also booked an inventory impairment charge (likely for land) of $21.3 million, and adjusted gross margin declined by 140 basis points to 20.5 percent.

Apparently DR Horton is using increased incentives to drive absorption. This is the fourth quarter in a row it has had write-downs for "impairments." What it does is get options for land, and then fail to exercise the option.

Read MoreFull housing recovery may not happen until 2018: Survey

The bottom line for home builders: there is demand, it's just not enormous. Toll Brothers had 10-percent order growth, Taylor Morrison saw orders grow 37 percent, and now Horton has reported and increase of 38 percent. It's a slow and steady recovery. It's not parabolic, demand is OK, but there is not a lot of supply. If you open a new community in the right area, you will do well.

3) Market Vectors is today launching a bond fund focused exclusively on Chinese bonds traded in mainland China: the ChinaAMC China Bond ETF. It will be based on an index that comprises 1,446 bonds of 244 Chinese issuers.

This follows on the heels of their Market Vectors China ETF, the first exchange traded fund to get access to Chinese mainland stocks.

Van Eck Global CEO Jan van Eck, who is launching the ETF Tuesday, will be with me on CNBC's "Fast Money Halftime Report" at 12:45 p.m. ET to talk about the coming link between Hong Kong and the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which goes live Nov. 17 and will dramatically expand the number of mainland Chinese stocks available for investors to trade.