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One way to profit off the cold weather

The big chill is coming back!

No, not the movie about '60s hippies who became '80s yuppies. Rather, unusually cold weather has hit North America this week, bringing miserably low temperatures to the Northern Planes and Great Lakes for the rest of November.

And while the thermometer falls, natural gas prices have been generally rising. Since the beginning of the month, contracts on natural gas have gained 7 percent.

Last year, of course, the dreaded polar vortex brought severe wintery weather to much of North America, helping natural gas prices to skyrocket. From Nov. 1, 2013, to March 1, 2014, nat gas soared 67 percent.

That, of course, raises the question: Is there a way to make money off the cold weather by buying the ETF that tracks natural gas (trading under the ticker symbol UNG)?

(See: CNBC's Oil and Gas coverage)

Erin Gibbs, equity chief investment officer at S&P Capital IQ Global Markets Intelligence, believes natural gas and UNG are headed higher over the next few months, in part based on their behavior over the last five years. She notes that prices have moved from lows in late autumn to peaks sometime between January and April.

"I would definitely hold on to it at least until the new year rings in," said Gibbs, who has about $12 billion in assets under advisory. "We expect natural gas to go up. "

The technicals are also bullish on UNG, according to the chart work of Steven Pytlar, chief equity strategist at Prime Executions.

"We actually like this chart," he said.

(Read: US crude futures settle at $77.18, lowest since October 2011)

Pytlar sees UNG still in a well-defined trend channel that began in early 2012. "It just recently tested the lower bound" of the range, he added. "It's slowing trending upwards, meaning that slowly, more and more natural gas is being used, [and there is] more demand going forward as the economy improves."

Like Gibbs, Pytlar also notes the seasonality of UNG and expects it to go up in the coming months.

"This is likely to play out once again," he said. "Based on the charts, we would look for natural gas prices to head higher moving forward."

But those expecting UNG to have huge moves equal to its underlying natural gas contracts may be surprised to find out one key fact about the ETF. "With this particular fund, it's actually almost 50 percent cash," noted Gibbs. "You're not going to see the same volatility in this fund as you see in natural gas prices."

Disclosure: Neither S&P Capital IQ Global Markets Intelligence nor Gibbs has any position in UNG.

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