With Thanksgiving just a week away, investors may already be shopping for the very best trade for Black Friday. Surprisingly, the winner isn't Macy's or Wal-Mart or the other stores that make headlines for opening earlier and earlier on that fateful day and getting mobbed by bargain-hunting maniacs.
Rather, it's a quiet luxury bellwether with a flagship store on Madison Avenue that's fit for the Aristocrats.
Shares of Coach were the overwhelmingly consistent winner in a study of trading activity leading up to and after Black Friday using Kensho, a quantitative tool that hedge funds use to find profitable trades.
Coach shares rose 85 percent of the time during the trading period containing the week of and the week following Black Friday, with an average return of 3 percent over that two-week period. So if past is prologue, now is the time to scoop up the shares.
"It's an inexpensive way to give that loved one a glamour brand for the holidays," said Jon Najarian, when asked why Coach was such a consistent holiday winner year after year. The trader and contributor to CNBC's "Fast Money" just bought the stock in preparation for its Black Friday run.
For this study, Kensho analyzed all the trading data around Black Fridays going back to 1980 for members of S&P 500.